Universal assertions thatdisplacement inevitably occurs in the aftermath of problem-led policing effortsare largely based on unfounded suppositions rather than empirical facts. Research has consistently foundthat crime displacement is the exception rather than the rule and thatdiffusion of benefits is just as likely and sometimes more likely to occur. Incases where some displacement occurs it tends to be less than the gainsachieved by the response. Familiarizing yourself with this research allows youto justify your efforts to potential critics particularly during the earlystages of your project before you've assessed displacement and diffusioneffects of your own.
One of the most comprehensivereviews of the extent of displacement among evaluations of situational-focusedcrime prevention projects, conducted in 2008 by Guerette and Bowers, found thatdisplacement and diffusion are equally likely to occur. Table 1 presents someof the results from this analysis (See Appendix A for more information).Displacement tends be observed in 26 percent of the instances where it is examined,and diffusion is observed 27 percent of the time. This research also suggeststhat of the different types, temporal displacement is most common (occurring 36percent of the time), followed by target (33 percent), offense (26 percent),spatial (23 percent), and tactical (22 percent). As for diffusion, spatialdiffusion seems to be most common (occurring 37 percent of the time) followedby target (24 percent), offense and temporal (each at 16 percent), and tactical(12 percent).
1) Develop a script and include a theoretical figure presenting the script in the assessment for the type of crime chosen (drug importation)
2) Provide an in-text description of the script using your literature review for that purpose;
3) Apply one of the five situational prevention techniques (increasing effort, increasing risk, reducing rewards, removing excuses or reducing provocations) from Cornish and Clarke (2003) (I uploaded that) to the script and discuss its potential for prevention (you have to suggest a minimum of one measure for each stage of the script)
For this section on situational prevention, you also have to include a table outlining the measures for each stage of the script and provide an in-text explanation of the content of the table
In order to complete this assessment (script analysis and prevention), you are strongly advised to use the article published by Leclerc, Wortley and Smallbone (2011) in Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency (I uploaded that). The Discussion section of this article (pp.220-231) is divided in two parts: 1) Script analysis with in-text description under ‘The Protoscript in Child Sex Offending’, and 2) Situational prevention measures with in-text description under ‘Crime Script, Intervention Points and Situational Prevention’. This discussion represents an excellent template for you to follow for this assessment.
Sherman, L., P.R. Gartin, and M.E. Buerger (1989)."Hotspots of Predatory Crime: Routine Activities in the Criminology ofPlace." Criminology 27(1): 27-56.
The criminals read the papers and evolve, too. I hear a TV news item about the sudden rise in, as-profitable-as-smuggling-drugs, but WAY LESS punishable, exciting new-ish Euro trade of smuggling non-pedigree dog puppies, of specific breeds that command street-level prices above that of heroin. Two types of breeds were mentioned: Grand Danois-like, and miniature chi-somethings; those that serve as "social accessories" for Social Lionesses. An Austrian Customs official complained about illegal minded kennels/ breeding farms in Eastern Europe, where there is no oversight of such enterprises, the entire output of which is moved by "criminal puppy underground" to well-heeled (often in advance contracted) Western middlemen or buyers. A Danish Public Health official was even more worried over the risk of reintroducing (initially fox-borne) rabies into Scandinavia, as hardly any of these puppies have been inoculated etc. When caught, the smugglers are arrested, face penalties and slap-on-the-wrist prison sentences (possibly up to 2 years? but seldom that high), which ARE NOWHERE NEAR the scales for smuggling dope. Meanwhile, their clutches of dogs are put down, as there is no one willing to care for them. Acc. to the report, that type of cross-border canine trade has skyrocketed in the past year by at least an order of magnitude, which may signal the entrance of organized crime into what up to now basically were mom-and-pop breeders making some extra dough on the side.
Fortwo reasons you should use caution when applying these ideas in practice. First,much of the knowledge regarding the nature of displacement is based ontheoretical propositions that remain untested. Although they do stem from firmtheoretical foundations regarding crime that have supportive research findings,there is little empirical evidence that displacement will behave the way thepropositions specify (e.g., familiarity decay; movement to areas closest toformer crime sites, etc.). Because of this they should be used as a guide to yourapproach to manage displacement not as hard and fast rules. Second, orienting preventionefforts toward relocating the impact of crime or problem behavior may raisecriticism from some community members and may pose some ethical dilemmas. Therefore,your primary goal should be to reduce crime and problem behavior outright withoutany displacement. Assessments of reduced harm should be used as a way toevaluate the impact of your efforts and to inform subsequent cycles of the problem-solvingprocess.
Designing your assessment to determine the presence ofdisplacement or diffusion effects requires you to apply what you learned in theanalysis of your project's displacement potential, particularly involving thetypes of displacement that might occur. For many projects spatial and temporal displacementwill be most relevant; for others target, tactical, or crime type displacementmay be more likely. A project could result in more than one type ofdisplacement or diffusion. If you think this could be the case in your project,you need to assess the different types of displacement and diffusion that mightreasonably occur.
Serious violent crimes often occur in what is normally called "hotspots." By targeting these areas and using a combination of programsreduction of crime is possible.
Anotherway the presence of displacement would fail to washout response effects is whenvictimization or the impact of crime and problem behavior is dispersed fromconcentrated places or people. Research shows that crime tends todisproportionately concentrate in time, place, and among victims. A response that targets community memberswho routinely experience a disproportionately high rate of victimizationcompared to others (e.g., repeat victims), or targets crime and problembehavior that is concentrated in a relatively small, specific place (e.g., hot spot,risky facilities) can continue to provide beneficial results even ifdisplacement occurs. This is because the problem behavior will be lessconcentrated and as such, will result in less harm for the community. Again,any displacement is undesirable, but recognizing the benefit of crimedispersion could be useful.
You should consider three criteria when selecting suitabledisplacement/diffusion areas (see Table 3). The first criterion is that thereis a logically specifiable reason to expect displacement or diffusion to thatplace, target, tactic, time, or crime type. For spatial displacement anddiffusion this usually requires the area to be near the response area for manyof the theoretical reasons discussed previously in this guide (e.g., awarenessspace and familiarity decay). There may, however, be times when it is logical fordisplacement to occur some distance away from the response area, and this shouldalso be examined. Examples of this would be the relocation of problem behaviorin a park to another park several blocks away or a street prostitution marketthat may shift to an existing prostitution market in another part of town. Insuch instances you need to assess the presence of displacement and diffusion ineach location (e.g., the zone around the response area and the distantlocation).